AI Impact on the Job Market (Short guide)

‍Artificial Intelligence is a double-edged sword. It has the potential to revolutionize industries and create new opportunities, and it has the potential to disrupt the job market and replace workers in many industries.

I am a professional programmer, and I am also a Computer Science student almost done with my Master's degree in CS with Data Analytics.

When AI hype started around a year ago (again!) I was very much sceptic - as almost everyone was. So much sceptic that I even created this video explaining some basic ML technologies, trying to make an argument that AI can’t replace anyone.

https://youtu.be/lPM3ISFQy68

Now I have to admit it - I was wrong.

In this blog post, I will try to explore what kind of impact AI could have on jobs, including my very own programming job. What’s more important, I will share what I think is going to help you to stay ahead in the job market.

What all the fuss about?

AI hype isn’t something new. It was coming and going in waves every few years. Those who were old enough to see several AI hype waves got somewhat immune to AI-related news. That’s understandable - we were promised so many times inevitable breakthroughs which would never happen.

That’s why most of us treated ChatGPT in the same way at first. People would argue that ChatGPT can’t do anything useful, that it was just a sophisticated statistical model or even not more than “Advanced” T9 (which was ages-old autocorrection functionality on mobile phones back in the 2000s).

However once one actually starts to properly use ChatGPT they would understand how revolutionary the technology was. Having a bit of knowledge of Machine Learning technologies, and Deep Learning in particular, I was truly amazed at how advanced and sophisticated the GPT technology was. The results speak for themselves:

It can pass the Turing test [1].
It writes code that would compile and most likely do what it was supposed to do in any programming language [2]
It can write book summaries
It can write books [3]
It can pass university-level exams better than most students [4]

That has to be something. And when people had just started trying to understand what kind of potential GPT-3 based ChatGPT could have, GPT-4 was released - a model, which some would call “baby General AI”.

It has created a snowball effect, and there are more and more AI tools getting released daily. Some of them are specialised in particular tasks, which could theoretically make them extremely capable - probably more capable than any human can be.

"Is AI going to replace me?" is a wrong question

So everyone would start arguing about if AI is going to replace them in the job market. Indeed, there is even more or less scientific research attempting to assess the potential impact GPT models could have on the job market [5].

But “Is Artificial Intelligence going to replace programmers/testers/whatever”? is a wrong question. If the question is wrong, the answer would not matter. So what is the correct question then?

The correct question is “What AI could mean to me personally in the job market? How it is going to affect my job security? Salary? Employability?”

This whole AI situation, energy prices, and IT startup crisis create a huge level of uncertainty, triggering our flight or fight response, so we all starting to feel worried and helpless.

Things are even more scary because we not only don't have a full understanding of what is actually happening, but we have not the slightest idea about what is going to happen, but we still need to make a decision about what our course of action should be. And if you decide to ignore AI revolution and do nothing - it is a choice too.

How AI can disrupt the job market

Let’s try to address the uncertainty based on the analysis of the several scenarios describing how AI can affect the job market. For simplicity's sake, we will assume that any scenario has equal probability. That is a gross oversimplification, but probably the best we could do now.

Scenario 1: Little to no AI adoption

In this scenario, there is little to no adoption of AI in the job market. This could be due to a lack of investment in AI technology, a worker’s rights lobby, legislation difficulties or some other reason.

In this scenario, the job market is unlikely to change significantly, but companies that do adopt AI may gain some competitive advantage over those that do not.

Impact on the job market: negligible

Scenario 2: Limited AI adoption

In this scenario, there is some adoption of AI in the job market, but it is limited to certain industries or tasks.

For example, some less technical programming jobs, like web development, could be replaced with “low-code” solutions. At the same time, an “AI-assisted” test-driven development approach could allow increasing programmers' productivity by, let's say, roughly 50%.

This could lead to job displacement in web development, IT consulting and probably other programming-related fields, but it could also create new job opportunities in fields such as data analysis and machine learning.

Impact on the job market: Big

Scenario 3: “Soft” Technological singularity

Technological singularity refers to the hypothetical event when AI becomes so advanced that it surpasses human intelligence and becomes self-improving. This could lead to massive job displacement as AI takes over tasks previously performed by humans. However, this scenario is considered unlikely in the nearest future by most experts, as it assumes that AI will continue to improve at an exponential rate.

But what if we consider something less extreme than that, but almost equally disruptive? Let’s say AI remains on the roughly same level it is now but sees universal adoption, replacing the majority of knowledge workers. It is virtually impossible to predict what would happen next, but one thing is certain - it is unlikely to be pretty.

Impact on the job market: Total disruption and chaos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHNlCo69W0s

How to beat the game?

Our (extremely simplified) analysis shows that it is more likely that there going to be some AI adoption and quite a significant impact on the job market. Which means you should be ready, and act now.

But how can you stay ahead in the job market in the age of AI? Here are a few tips I was able to come up with.

Stay up-to-date with AI technology

Keep up with the latest developments in AI technology and how they are being applied in different industries. This will help you understand how AI is likely to impact your job and what skills you may need to develop to stay relevant.

Develop skills that complement AI

As AI becomes more prevalent in the job market, there will be an increasing demand for workers who are profficient in using AI tools. You could (and should) be one of them. It might be a great time to install Github Copilot, as one example.

Embrace lifelong learning

AI is likely to change the job market at a rapid pace, so it is important to embrace lifelong learning and continue to develop new skills throughout your career. As for now, it takes quite a long time to train the GPT model, so people can be more agile and usually would learn faster.

So I'd recommend taking courses on new shiny and promising technologies and also learning something more fundamental, like software architecture.

And generally, be ready to learn something new every now and then.

By the way - my YouTube channel may be a nice "has it all" place to start: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkJRvCK2-l2gCuPT9-HUG7A

Conclusion

Some experts predict that AI will replace a significant number of jobs in the near future, while others argue that AI will create new job opportunities. The reality is likely somewhere in between. AI has the potential to automate certain tasks and even replace knowledge workers (programmers and testers are just two examples), but it could also create new job opportunities in fields such as data analysis and machine learning.

The impact of AI on jobs is a complex and evolving issue. To stay ahead in the job market in the age of AI, it is important to stay up-to-date with AI technology, develop skills that complement AI, and embrace lifelong learning. By doing so, you can position yourself for success in the rapidly changing job market.

If you enjoyed this blog post feel free to consider reading my other blog posts or checking on my YouTube channel:

https://testclub.hashnode.dev/

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkJRvCK2-l2gCuPT9-HUG7A